Copper, Crypto, the Dollar, and the New Commodity Era

Markets in late 2025 are pulling in different directions. Hedge assets like gold and silver are soaring, digital assets are consolidating their place in mainstream portfolios, the dollar’s grip is softening at the edges, and the real economy, housing and critical minerals is showing how present strain and future demand collide. The signals echo themes we’ve tracked all year in The Weekly Chai: gold’s rise as a strategic anchor, crypto’s transition from experiment to infrastructure, and the dollar’s uneasy dominance.

Gold has moved from ornament to operating system for global portfolios. Prices above $4,100/oz, nearly 60% higher this year, mark the strongest rally in a generation. Silver has surged even more, up 67% and above $50/oz for the first time. Central banks remain net buyers, ETFs have absorbed $67B year-to-date, and industrial demand is adding structural weight. Even India’s Reserve Bank now holds enough bullion to cover 11 months of imports, its highest ratio since the mid-1990s. As we noted in our April feature, gold is no longer just a cultural store, it’s a strategic buffer.

Bitcoin’s role is less about speculative surges now than institutional entrenchment. After a +121% run in 2024, it has added another ~15% this year, supported by the fastest ETF adoption in history. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now manage over $120B in assets, hitting the $100B mark 20 times faster than SPDR Gold Shares did back in 2004. The GENIUS Act, passed in July, created the first federal rulebook for digital assets, pushing the conversation beyond “if crypto belongs” to “how it’s integrated.” As we highlighted in May, the debate is no longer existential, it’s structural.

In our May column, we asked if the dollar was losing its aura, the current data suggests adjustment rather than displacement.

Housing shows the drag of high rates. Mortgage costs above 6% have left builder sentiment in contraction for 18 straight months. Price cuts and incentives are creeping in, but affordability remains stretched, and policy relief is still distant.

Minerals, by contrast, point to inevitability. Copper, newly added to the U.S. Critical Minerals List is essential to EVs, grid upgrades, and AI data centers. An electric vehicle needs about four times as much copper as a conventional car. Lithium and cobalt prices are soft now, but forecasts warn of sharp deficits later this decade. And with China processing ~90% of global rare earths, supply chains remain strategically exposed.

Together, housing and minerals capture a split we’ve seen across markets: cyclical softness versus structural scarcity. One drags in the present; the other builds pressure for the future.

Markets chase narratives: rate cuts, regulation, geopolitics but the hard assets remain the anchor. Gold, Bitcoin, the dollar, housing, and minerals each tell a different story, yet all point to the same conclusion, the physical economy still sets the foundation for everything else.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Market conditions are subject to change, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.